Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 56392.616734 59733.696321 63081.150907 66683.951598 70449.265197 74265.580866 78423.300898
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 51358.655629 56478.972427 61759.267353 67602.825437 73879.873720 80411.295087 87712.455376
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 47762.064571 54095.469695 60775.703179 68329.116694 76614.343235 85407.583742 95427.261206
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 44784.073538 52002.165229 59761.165488 68692.603836 78659.619592 89409.953936 101851.039456
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 42135.590683 50021.614106 58641.774045 68721.190993 80138.993725 92626.797725 107271.648323
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 40069.420973 48527.422515 57912.869287 69041.389330 81815.667047 95958.979254 112738.511839
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 38114.606989 47027.801263 57057.587408 69104.390914 83101.768107 98773.003654 117561.481004
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 36934.686949 46344.811349 57067.777045 70096.411850 85398.888585 102700.904356 123636.913274
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 35247.926537 44972.187580 56191.695174 69978.837588 86343.893692 105025.371208 127833.365680
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 34383.045944 44529.816712 56367.577097 71061.582205 88666.486870 108933.382192 133871.395446
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 33392.481185 43881.963655 56252.339763 71757.546168 90501.750079 112255.067782 139222.668948
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 32130.018861 42844.090954 55616.265780 71780.575016 91495.723141 114558.439632 143359.487093
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 30796.923872 41683.205465 54803.793047 71572.328758 92208.103977 116541.044013 147151.653407
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 30159.280450 41369.608849 55013.926574 72604.321890 94423.646918 120333.878389 153139.214021
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 29446.148547 40927.911915 55038.146912 73385.066940 96319.347656 123740.501996 158676.051805
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 28596.049655 40275.504100 54767.835191 73772.225404 97710.996024 126527.117288 163465.956025
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 27635.236361 39443.263285 54237.538224 73802.953101 98636.744493 128730.868372 167542.458853
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 26866.439035 38834.482890 53967.574416 74142.011639 99933.018096 131383.889014 172175.841558
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 26022.382397 38095.913274 53503.514484 74208.722125 100867.527406 133579.392463 176245.111514
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 25638.355253 37958.340233 53808.600220 75258.771135 103049.571023 137336.016597 182273.948559
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 24790.290418 37163.989020 53227.091717 75134.329382 103712.574758 139180.790125 185915.898892
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 24495.549938 37114.165210 53620.578616 76280.234583 106011.187111 143094.697494 192176.685221
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 24054.228982 36845.921092 53710.217035 77016.692223 107776.903305 146339.515159 197610.712992